And one will get caught in opposing winds, because the computer model wind forecasts seem to be quite wrong along this coast. For this area, all the popular weather sites (PassageWeather, BuoyWeather, SturmSurf, WindGuru) are based on the Global Forecast System computer model, there is no Meso scale model available. The GFS model often calculates less wind along the coast than offshore. It also shows varying wind directions in the transition from offshore to shore. All this seems to be not true along this coast. There seem to be only two wind directions. Against us, along the shore, or, with us, along the shore. Both in equal strength, 20-30, sometimes more. The GFS model also seems to have problems with the rapid change of direction, often indicating there will be a lull 6-12h. We learned, the switch from one wind direction to the other can be very rapid and the sea will be horribly confused, for a while... The GFS model does well on the open ocean, but not for this shoreline. It seems better to look what kind of winds are offshore, if it blows 30-35knot out there from the East, it will do the same, or more, along the shore.
There are several places to stop, recommended in diverse cruising literature:
- Port Elizabeth: Just another city, can not compare with Durban, the marina's floating pontoons have been mostly destroyed in a freak storm Oct-2009 clocking 164 km/h. Some pontoon fingers have been rebuilt, but there is no space for visitors, one has to tie up with the fishing vessels, or anchor out in the open. We didn't want to stop here, we probably should have.
- St Francis: Modern housing development, really not a city, but with a new marina. We did plan to stop here and had reserved a space. The entrance is open to the East and rather narrow. Swell from the East makes the entrance dangerous. We had 3-4m easterly swell running. The harbormaster of St Francis told us not to come in, it wouldn't be safe.
- Plettenberg Bay. We knew a West wind would be coming and looked to hide in there. Protected from anything but easterly winds, they say.... The swell from the East was only 3-4 meter, offshore. But once we were in Plettenberg Bay, the bottom came up to 150 feet, the swell height increased, and some waves started to break with impressive heights. Not often, but scary, we didn't go further in, we left. Leaving was tough, against wind and swell.
- Knysna (webcam): A protected lagoon, with a difficult, narrow entrance, only to be tried in best of conditions, at slack tide. The NRSI would even send out a rescue boat to guide in a yacht. We passed Knysna at midnight, full moon. We were able to see the swell breaking all the way across the two bars at the entrance. And we would have had to wait for daylight, then slack tide. With westerly winds threatening, we pressed on.
- Mossel Bay: Another harbor with one small floating dock, too full to accommodate visiting yachts. Another bay, open to the East and South, swell coming in, breaking surf at the beach. But they have some swing moorings behind the break water, outside of the harbor and one is quite protected from wind and swell, in a westerly blow.
The SAWS also transmits the forecast on VHF and HF, twice a day, announced on channel 16. Then one has to switch to the working channel, the list of working channels, depending on location, is here: http://www.transnetnationalportsauthority.net/NPA_ports_cape_town_functions.html
